Tuesday, January 21, 2014

Chartology: Yields Lower, Then Higher (in line With DoubleLine's Jeff Gundlach)

The yield on the 10-year is ticking down again this morning, 2.8270% after trading at 3.0260 on Dec. 31.
From StockCharts (Jan. 11):
Major Breakout on Hold 
Friday's US Employment Situation Report was much less-than-expected at +87k. Many believe this to be an aberration given recent strong employment data, but the aberration may be a longer-than-expected aberration given 10-year note yield may be telling us that a "soft patch" is directly ahead.
10-yr note 1-11-14

Quite simply, let us preference this with the fact that 10-year note yields have indeed broken out above long-term 200-week moving average, which tells us yields are going higher over the longer-term. However, major trendline resistance is once again starting to prove its merit, with distance above the 200-week moving average having traded into overbought levels at the +20% level. In the past, this distance has been "as good as it gets" for yields, and a decline develops thereafter.

Our downside target is obviously the bottoming 200-week moving average currently trading at the 2.47% level. But make no mistake, we are only looking for yields to correct and then begin to trade at much higher levels.
Here's the slide deck from Gundlach's Jan. 14 webcast (70 page PDF)
He is calling for an initial move to 2.5% on the 10 year but doesn't forecast the subsequent upmove.