Friday, April 25, 2014

Natural Gas: EIA Weekly Supply/Demand Report

The front futures are off a penny at $4.6950 and look a bit heavy.
From the Energy Information Administration:
...Consumption falls. U.S. natural gas consumption fell in all sectors except in the industrial sector, which increased by 0.1% from the previous week. Overall U.S. consumption decreased by 2.2 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) or 3.5% from the previous week, with a combined decrease of 2.1 Bcf/d, in power, residential, and commercial consumption. Moderate temperatures across the United States likely contributed to the decreases of gas consumption. Power burn decreased in most regions except in the Midcontinent and the Pacific Northwest, where the temperatures were colder. Gas exports to Mexico fell 6.9% from the previous week.

Storage Net storage injection exceeds average. The net injection reported for the week ending April 18 was 49 Bcf, 2 Bcf larger than the 5-year average net injection of 47 Bcf and 19 Bcf larger than last year's net injection of 30 Bcf. Working gas inventories totaled 899 Bcf, 831 Bcf (48.0%) less than last year at this time, 1,008 Bcf (52.9%) below the 5-year (2009-13) average, and 768 Bcf (46.1%) below the 5-year observed minimum.

Storage build is larger than market expectations. Market expectations called for a build of 42 Bcf. When the EIA storage report was released at 10:30 a.m., the price for the May natural gas futures contract rose 1 cent to $4.74/MMBtu on the Nymex. Prices fell 4 cents in the hour following the release.
Two regions post larger-than-average builds. The East, West, and Producing regions had net injections of 17 Bcf (10 Bcf smaller than its 5-year average injection of 27 Bcf), 10 Bcf (5 Bcf larger than its 5-year average injection of 5 Bcf), and 22 Bcf (6 Bcf larger than its 5-year average injection of 16 Bcf), respectively. Storage levels for all three regions remain below their year-ago and 5-year average levels, and their 5-year minimums.

Temperatures during the storage report week warmer than normal. Temperatures in the Lower 48 states averaged 53.6 degrees for the week, 0.9 degree warmer than the 30-year normal temperature and 0.4 degree warmer than during the same period last year....
...MUCH MORE
Deviation between average and normal (°F)
7-Day Mean ending Apr 17, 2014
Mean Temperature Anomaly (F) 7-Day Mean ending Apr 17, 2014