Friday, June 20, 2014

Natural Gas: Weekly EIA Supply/Demand Report

From the Energy Information Administration:
...Nymex increases this week. The price of the Nymex near-month (July) contract began the report week on Wednesday, June 11, at $4.508/MMBtu. It traded up by 25.4 cents/MMBtu on Thursday, closing at $4.762/MMBtu, as temperature expectations rose. This was the highest price for both the July contract and the near-month contract since May 6. The July contract closed above $4.700/MMBtu through Tuesday, before trading down yesterday to $4.659/MMBtu, a 15.1-cent/MMBtu gain for the report week. The price of the 12-month strip (the 12 contracts between July 2014 and June 2015) rose by 13.2 cents/MMBtu, from $4.448/MMBtu last Wednesday to $4.579 yesterday.

Production and supply partially recover from last week. Overall supply increased by 0.4 Bcf/d, or 0.6%, from the previous week, to 72.7 Bcf/d, following a 0.7 Bcf/d decrease last week. Dry natural gas production increased by 0.1 Bcf/d, or 0.2%, to 67.9 Bcf/d, following a decrease last week of 0.3 Bcf/d. Dry production remained 0.5% below the record average of 68.3 Bcf/d for the week ending on May 28. Pipeline imports from Canada increased by 0.3 Bcf/d, while liquefied natural gas (LNG) sendout remained flat.

Consumption decreases, despite higher power burn. Total U.S. natural gas consumption declined for the seventh week in a row, by 0.2 Bcf/d, or 0.3%, to 54.8 Bcf/d, despite increasing power burn by electricity generators. From Thursday to Sunday, total U.S. natural gas consumption fell from 53.5 Bcf to 52.1 Bcf, as power burn fell from 21.8 Bcf to 20.2 Bcf. Consumption rose to 55.4 Bcf on Monday and 59.0 Bcf on Tuesday, driven by a jump in power burn to 24.5 Bcf and 28.2 Bcf, respectively, as temperatures warmed significantly throughout the country, particularly in the Northeast, Midwest, Southeast, and Midcontinent. Consumption and power burn both decreased on Wednesday.

Although average power burn for the report week rose by 0.3 Bcf/d, to 23.2 Bcf/d, this was less than the 0.4 Bcf/d decrease in residential and commercial consumption, which fell as a result of the warmer temperatures, causing total U.S. consumption to decrease. Industrial natural gas consumption decreased slightly, while pipeline exports to Mexico increased slightly...MUCH MORE