Monday, July 25, 2016

"How to trade President Trump/ Clinton"

If, like me, you grow weary of every financial commentator/journalist sharing their political partialities while lacking the analytical chops to even discern what a Hillary win means for the cobalt trade in DR Congo or what the China bet is should Trump prevail, here's a nice change of pace.
David Keohane at FT Alphaville:
Below the break is just one of what we are sure will be many US election guesswork charts.
It’s from HSBC this time and includes solid ‘buy gold’ and ‘currency war’ moments.
The shorthand at the top of each column could be expanded thusly:

Status quo/gridlock (Democratic president, Republican or divided Congress): Limited impact on current economic outlook

Bigger government (Democratic president, Democratic Congress): Modestly higher growth, higher budget deficits

Mainstream conservative (Republican president and Congress): Short-term growth boost, higher deficits and inflation

Populist overhaul (Republican president and Congress): Spike in economic uncertainty; after short boost to GDP growth from tax cuts, stagflation could set in; inflation could rise to 4-5% by 2018...
...MORE, including HSBC's grid of outcomes.