Friday, August 11, 2017

"Glencore takeover of Bunge 'could be possible this year'"—Credit Suisse (GLEN; BG)

Early in the current decade we were pitching the idea that George Soros should use his position in Gavilon to acquire Bunge:

August 12, 2011
At What Price Does George Soros Find Bunge Attractive? (BG)
No, that's not a reference to the Brazilian girlfriend who's suing him for $50 mil., it's a ref. to Mr. Soros' love affair with all things ag.

We'll have more next week. BG at $61.11, down 24 cents. 
But then Mr. Soros and Ospraie Management ended up selling Gavilon to Marubeni for $3.6 billion and we got bored watching Bunge, the worst-managed of the ABCD grain traders, current price, almost six years to the day later: $77.56, which, as Warren Buffet might say:
“Now I’m known as a long-term investor and a patient guy, but that is not my idea of a big move.”*
Anyhoo, on to the headline story from Agrimoney:
A takeover by Glencore of US-based ag giant Bunge "could be possible this year", Credit Suisse said, cutting its scepticism on a deal after the commodities group unveiled some wriggle room in its financial guidance.

Credit Suisse analysts - who last month flagged a "diminished risk" of Glencore succeeding in the takeover, after using up financial firepower on the acquisition of a stake in Hunter Valley coal operations – said that a Bunge could in fact be possible "in the near term".

The analysis followed Glencore comments on Thursday, as the group unveiled a return to first-half profit, signalling some potential for raising its debt above its self-proclaimed ceiling of $16bn

Steven Kalmin, the Glencore finance director said that while $16bn was "a pretty robust cap that we've been looking to manage the business around, I'm not saying we're going to die in a ditch" if it is breached in the short term.

"It's not going to go to $27 billion or whatever," Mr Kalmin, but signalled that it might "temporarily" exceed the cap, depending on the asset acquired it taking out the debt.

Sugar division sale?
Credit Suisse said, following the comments, that "we therefore infer that a Bunge acquisition could be possible this year [and] that the company is keen on exploring ways to do it".

A deal could be facilitated by Glencore taking on "a bit more debt", although the bank added that "we would think management would not want to do this in a significant way, say out to $18bn and then soon back".

The acquisition of Bunge, which has a stockmarket value of some $11bn, could also be enabled by making the US group a smaller target, through the sale of some operations....MORE
*That was Warren commenting on the secular bear market that ended in August 1982:
December 31, 1964: DJIA 874.12
December 31, 1981: DJIA 875.00
Previously on It's a small world after all:
February 2012
WTF? "Bunge to Buy Climate Change Capital" (BG)
I'm still trying to figure out why the ICE didn't get sued for bailing out Al Gore, Goldman Sachs and President Obama's pal Richard Sandor by way of their $604 million purchase of Climate Exchange, PLC.....
...Last week, James Cameron, founder and vice chairman of CCC, told Reuters the company was being sold "at a low point" in its valuation....MORE
It sure as hell better be.
As a side note, we don't own any Bunge but think it would be a good fit with either Louis Dreyfus or Glencore. 
March 2012
Glencore, Bunge Eye Sale of Soros-backed Gavilon
March 2012
Grain Handler Viterra gets Takeover bid from Glencore, report says (VT.tsx; GLEN.L)
August 2014
Commodities: "More Bumper Crops, Fewer Bumps at Bunge" (BG)

Nothing since.